World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report

This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world
crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for the 2008/09
season.

WHEAT:

The 2008/09 U.S. wheat outlook is for higher
production, lower exports, and increased domestic use.
Total production is projected at 2.4 billion bushels, up 16
percent from 2007/08.  The survey-based forecast of winter
wheat production is up 17 percent as area and yield are
higher than last year.  Spring wheat production is expected
higher with seeded area up 10 percent in the March 31
Prospective Plantings report.  Durum and other spring
wheat production is projected at 614 million bushels, up 12
percent from 2007/08, based on 10-year harvested-to-
planted ratios and trend yields.  Total wheat supplies are
projected up only 4 percent because of historically low
carryin.

Total wheat use is projected down 5 percent for 2008/09 as
lower exports more than offset increased domestic use.
Food use is projected at 960 million bushels, up 10 million
from the current year reflecting steady growth in domestic
demand.  Feed and residual use is projected at 230 million
bushels, up sharply from the 60 million projected for
2007/08.  Larger supplies of soft red winter wheat and
higher corn prices boost wheat feeding.  Exports are
projected at 975 million bushels, down 24 percent from
2007/08.  Ending stocks for 2008/09 are projected at 483
million bushels, more than double the current year's
projected 239 million.  The national average farm price for
2008/09 is projected at $6.60 to $8.10 per bushel,
compared with the current year forecast of a record $6.55
per bushel.  Wheat prices will be supported by farmer
forward sales and early season export demand.

Global wheat production for 2008/09 is projected at a record
656 million tons, up 8 percent from 2007/08, and up 5
percent from the previous record in 2004/05.  Higher
production is projected for most of the world's major
exporting countries including Australia, Canada, EU-27,
Russia, and Ukraine.  Strong world prices and favorable
weather in most of EU-27 and FSU-12 raised production for
2008.  Production is also projected higher in Brazil, China,
and India.  Partly offsetting are reductions for Argentina and
Kazahkstan.  The only significant weather problems for
winter wheat remain in drought-stricken Middle East and
North Africa countries.

World wheat imports, exports, and consumption are
projected higher for 2008/09.  Imports are generally
projected higher throughout the world with EU-27 the major
exception.  Imports are expected to fall sharply for EU-27 as
wheat production rebounds from weather-reduced crops in
the 2 previous years.  EU-27 exports and wheat feeding are
expected to rise sharply.  World wheat ending stocks are
projected at 124 million tons, up 13 percent from the current
year's projection.